By Exit polls released on Tuesday unanimously predicted a decisive victory for the NDA in Bihar, suggesting the alliance is set to secure a far more comfortable majority than it did five years ago. Some surveys even indicated that the NDA could approach a two-thirds majority in the 243-member assembly.
The polls also agreed that Prashant Kishor’s new political outfit, Jan Suraaj, is unlikely to make a significant impact — particularly when it comes to winning seats.
If these predictions hold true, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar would reaffirm his enduring popularity despite nearly two decades in power, barring a brief nine-month break. Such a result would also give the NDA a strong boost ahead of several key state elections next year.
According to Dainik Bhaskar, the NDA is projected to win between 145 and 160 seats, with the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan trailing at 73–102, and others expected to claim 5–10 seats. The Matrize-IANS poll offered similar figures, giving the NDA 147–167 seats, the MGB 70–90, and others 2–6. People’s Pulse projected the NDA at 135–159, the MGB at 75–101, and others at 2–8.
The majority mark in the Bihar Assembly stands at 122, while 162 constitutes a two-thirds majority — a milestone achieved twice in the past two decades. In 2010, the NDA won 206 seats, while in 2015 the Mahagathbandhan (then comprising the RJD, JD(U), and Congress) secured 178. In the 2020 elections, the NDA won 125 seats, and the MGB garnered 110.
While exit polls offer early insights, their accuracy has varied over the years — with some spot-on predictions and others missing the mark entirely. Two major pollsters, Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, are expected to release their forecasts on Wednesday, with the final results due Friday.
