By Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections are pointing toward a potentially dramatic political shift in the state. According to projections released by Today’s Chanakya, the Bharatiya Janata Party appears to be in a commanding position, with numbers suggesting it could cross the majority mark comfortably.
In a 294-member Assembly where 147 seats are needed to form the government, the agency has projected the BJP to secure around 190 or more seats. If this estimate holds, it would mark a significant turnaround in Bengal’s political landscape, potentially ending the long rule of the All India Trinamool Congress, which has been in power for over a decade under Mamata Banerjee.
What stands out in these projections is not just the seat count, but the gap in vote share. The BJP is estimated to garner close to 48% of the vote, while the TMC is projected at around 38%. Such a difference, if reflected in actual results, would indicate a clear shift in voter sentiment across both urban and rural regions of the state.
The Today’s Chanakya findings are not entirely isolated. Several other exit polls have also placed the BJP ahead, though with varying margins. Some estimates suggest a tighter contest, with the BJP in the 150–170 seat range and the TMC not far behind. A few projections, however, still indicate that the ruling party could put up a strong fight or even retain power, highlighting the unpredictability of Bengal’s electoral dynamics.
Despite the trend indicated by multiple surveys, Mamata Banerjee has strongly dismissed the exit poll predictions. She argued that such projections are often designed to influence perception and demoralise party workers. Expressing confidence in her party’s grassroots connect, she maintained that the final verdict would favour the TMC once votes are counted.
Political observers say the high voter turnout and intense campaigning have made this election particularly significant. The outcome is being closely watched not just for who forms the next government, but also for what it reveals about the evolving political mood in West Bengal.
For now, exit polls offer only a preview—not the final result. The actual verdict will be known when votes are counted, and until then, the possibility of a major political shift remains an open question.
